Monogatari Series - Volume 25 - Chapter 10.05

005 

The epilogue, or maybe, the punch line of this story. 

I pretended to follow the Monty Hall solution and purposely chose the wrong answer, but realized the truth at the very last moment. Did those girls really have no thinking time? Certainly, there was near to no time lag after I chose for the first time. One of the two who were not chosen had put on glasses and the other one smiled at nearly the same time as I chose. But, what if the thinking time was already finished by then? 

There was no way to know who I would choose among the choices A, B, and C before I did. But, when I chose with a one-out-of-three probability, what if they had already chosen who of the remaining two to remove? 

Since Akari-san (the maid looking like her) said “then for this test… Shall we go with that one?” as if she thought of it on the spot, I accepted it without further questioning, however, what if the test had already begun then? 

Then it’s a simple story. 

Let’s say choice A was correct and B and C were wrong, if they chose from the start to remove choice B, there would be no need for thinking time. Even if I chose B, at that time they would have to remove C. 

Of course that kind of method isn’t originally used in the game, it can’t even be applied to a repeated thought experiment. If the game master had a habit, which became a will and a bias, it would cease to simply work according to probabilities. The random nature would be lost. 

However, for a one-time fight in this burnt field. 

For example, if the maid the glasses were handed to during the shuffle were to be removed, if you create an elaborate mystery beforehand, if you agree on that—there would be no need for thinking time among the sisters. 

The one possessing the glasses would put them on and the other one would smile. 

When I noticed this, all my thought process went down the drain. 

I didn’t know which one was Akari-san, I had no idea who to choose to be wrong. 

I didn’t know anything. 

So, as a desperate measure, I pointed at the sure-miss option. 

In other words, the Teruko-san who was removed after the first choice. Though it was now unclear whether she was Teruko-san or Hikari-san, anyhow, the glasses-wearing maid, who retreated one step. 

I wasn’t told to not choose the maid removed from the equation. 

Taking the statement of Teruko-san being a liar the other way… “In reality you were the right choice, the eldest got removed from the options, right?” I meant to play the role of the genius who got drowned into overthinking, read too deep into it and was trying to show off. 

But, of all things that could happen, that was the real correct answer. 

No, technically not. 

If the real correct choice was the one removed, you could argue they wouldn’t be insisting so much over the invitation and simultaneously setting up such a coward trick question. So that wasn’t it. 

The one I chose wasn’t the removed choice. The one I chose, the one I ended up choosing was the maid who hadn’t been removed— her, who was removed from the options was purely a misfire. 

Not Akari-san, but instead Hikari-san or Teruko-san, one of the two. 

The thing about the glasses probably went as I deduced at the last moment. 

They decided the person holding the glasses would be removed from the options from the start. And, they had also decided that the glasses in question would be silently handed to the other remaining choice behind my back. 

I wonder if you can call that a substitution trick too? 

Who would have thought that differentiating by glasses would have led to a substitution of identical triplets? The purpose of the circular formation wasn’t just to prevent escape by Hanekawa Tsubasa, as I had thought, but to get behind my back. To hand over the glasses right behind my back. 

Before entering the second stage, the maid I designated first (which is now clearly Hikari-san or Teruko-san) would suddenly say to me “I’m sure it will be fun, Hanekawa-san” to attract my attention and cover up the glasses being handed over. And to make me ponder. 

I played right into their hands. 

However, then, the ones who got drowned in their plan were the triplet maids. 

Since the maid with glasses I chose, trying to be wrong, was splendidly the eldest daughter, Akari-san. Looking at it without the maids, the glasses, or all those complicated factors, it was effectively a Monty Hall problem by the books. 

I properly got the right answer by changing my choice. 

Because of that, I was currently relaxing on the luxurious cruiser heading towards Wet Crow’s Feather Island. Unable to bring up that I wasn’t Hanekawa Tsubasa until the end, I was led into a limousine, a helicopter, and finally this cruiser. 

Advancing on the shortest route in this dim ocean. 

An ordinary student was on the verge of entering an island which was gathering chosen geniuses… A student failing his exams was on the verge of having the honor of meeting the exiled mistress from a big foundation… 

How did it come to this? 

Also, what is going to happen now? 

Did I instantly get punished by karma for crushing Hanekawa’s invitation because of my ego? No, but, I wonder? Did I really choose the maid with glasses with the intention of missing? 

When I pointed at her, who was obviously the correct choice with logic, what did my intuition tell me…? Didn’t I know in reality that she was Akari-san? Did I know, but pretend not to? Wasn’t I trying to make my will to protect Hanekawa and my ego coexist together? 

I’m beaten. I have no idea if I really knew. 

It looks like this time I’ll be able to cover for her by taking her place, however, in the future, when Hanekawa tries to leave the nest, will I be able or unable to accept it and send her off? Which answer is the right choice among those two? It shouldn’t be a question that far off in the future, but at this rate it looks like it’ll stay a difficult and undecided question I won’t be able to answer alone. 

Well, fine. It’s thinking time. 

Luckily I won’t be lacking in interaction with geniuses in the mansion I’m going to live in now. This kind of opportunity is rare so I won’t hold back and borrow the wisdom of those VIPs. 

The first morning of my life on Wet Crow’s Feather Island was just greeting me.